16
Moonlight Paradise
5yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 98
Navan · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Tramore | BHA93 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA94 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA96 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1978% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/12/2025 | 16th | 150/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |