8
Sammy Smart
10yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 104
Navan · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA106 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA108 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA110 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA110 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA111 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | BHA111 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1928% of fieldRange 8-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.77 |
| 31/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/01/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 42% | -0.21 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |