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4

Emergency Man

4yo Gelding · 11-10

Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Flat Race · 1m 7f 165y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

46%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shirocco gelding who showed plenty to work on behind a subsequent winner in a modestly-run race at Killarney on debut in July, pulling clear of remainder. Showed similar form when third of 9 back there 4 weeks ago but probably needs a bit more in a race containing a few interesting newcomers.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16416/07C?C0 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 15822/08C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Killarney?3rd3rd0
2026-07-16Killarney?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

Delivery trend -17.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
22/08/20263rd11/486%75%-0.11