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8

Rocky Alfonso

4yo Gelding · 11-10

Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Flat Race · 1m 7f 165y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Camacho gelding who proved easy to back but showed ability when fourth of 13 in 15f bumper at Roscommon on debut just over 6 weeks ago, the emphasis on speed probably suiting. That form has been franked, so has to warrant respect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m7f110y Yie 1644/08C?
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04Roscommon?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 2-7 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/20264th16/116%75%+0.59