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14

Sierra's Dream

4yo Filly · 11-3

Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Flat Race · 1m 7f 165y

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Churchill filly who showed a bit at big odds when fourth of 7 in 2m Wexford bumper on debut 6 weeks ago, though possibly found the emphasis on speed helping given her pedigree.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Wexford 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m Goo 1598/08C?
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Wexford?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 2-7 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20264th40/10%50%+0.50