Aspect Island
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 107
Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 12th | 12th | +0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 16th | 16th | +0 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 78% | -0.17 |
| 16/06/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/06/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |