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9

Azure Angel

6yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 101

Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bounced back to her best when resuming winning ways in listed event at Bath in April. Better form in defeat next 3 starts but unable to land a blow in much better company both starts since (almost unseated rider start at Goodwood penultimate outing). Now sports visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 91 · 5f89y Goo 129 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 91 par20/082OR 912 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 89 · 4f214y Sta 124 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 89 par3 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 93 · 4f214y Std 133 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 93 par4/033OR 931 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 92 · 5f10y Goo 135 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 92 par1 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 98 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 98 par30/051OR 981 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 26 · OR 98 · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 98 par1 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 99 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 99 par11/071OR 991 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 104 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 103 · 5f GS 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 103 par21/081OR 103projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York117th17th+0
2026-07-31Goodwood115th15th+0
2026-07-11York15th5th−0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot112th12th+0
2026-05-30Carlisle15th5th−0
2026-04-05Bath11st1st−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/085/0411/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/20258th11/142%63%+0.21
21/09/20251st18/15%100%+0.95
04/03/20266th11/271%44%-0.27
05/04/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
30/05/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
16/06/202612th125/10%56%+0.56
11/07/20265th14/126%67%+0.40
31/07/202615th28/10%0%0.00
21/08/202617th125/10%6%+0.06