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7

Dickensian

3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 108

Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Advanced his form when making a winning return in a 5f listed race at York in May and produced his best effort since on the back of a breathing operation when length third of 9 to Extremely Zain in a 6f listed event there 13 days ago. Still needs to confirm he's as effective away from York.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 23 · OR - · 5f GF 13118/0611 @ Goodwood 30/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 94 · 5f Gd 129 · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 94 par1 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 96 par23/081OR 961 @ Doncaster 12/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 96 · 5f3y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 96 par1 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 100 · 5f Gd 130 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 100 par14/051OR 1002 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 20th of 27 · OR 104 · 5f GF 135 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 103 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 103 par11/071OR 1031 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 106 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 104 · 6f GS 131 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 104 par6/091OR 104projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York13rd3rd−0
2026-07-31Goodwood113th13th+0
2026-07-11York17th7th−0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot220th22th−1
2026-05-14York11st1st−0
2025-09-12Doncaster13rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0612/0911/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/20252nd20/10%95%+0.95
30/07/20253rd11/142%71%+0.29
23/08/20253rd3/184%71%-0.13
12/09/20253rd8/158%78%+0.20
14/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
19/06/202620th14/126%27%+0.01
11/07/20267th14/126%50%+0.24
31/07/202613th33/10%14%+0.14
06/09/20263rd40/10%75%+0.75