Diligent Harry
8yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 109
Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Lingfield | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Lingfield | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Haydock | 1 | 14th | 14th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 06/09/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 30% | -0.56 |