First Instinct
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 105
Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 22th | 22th | +0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 13th | 13th | +0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newbury | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 11/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 05/10/2025 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/06/2026 | 22nd | 66/1 | 0% | 16% | +0.16 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |