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11

Miss Yechance

3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 97

Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice for Jack Morland in Britain at 2 yrs, before bagging a Meydan handicap in January for A Cintra & Julio Olascoaga. Better than ever when blazing a trail from the front in a 19-runner handicap (9/1) at York (5f, good) 31 days ago and she's worth a crack at this higher grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 24/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 136 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 86 par24/084OR 86C5 @ Meydan 05/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 86 parC0 @ Meydan 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 5f Gd 1209/01C?C5 @ Meydan 30/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 86 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 86 parC0 @ Meydan 20/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 5f 12120/02C?C5 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 92 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 27 · OR 91 · 5f GF 122 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 91 par19/062OR 913 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 123 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 90 par19/082OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19York21st3rd−1
2026-07-30Goodwood33rd6th−2
2026-06-19Royal Ascot27th9th−1
2026-03-06Meydan?2nd7th−4
2026-02-20Meydan?4th4th0
2026-01-30Meydan?5th10th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0830/0119/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20254th15/261%50%-0.11
05/12/20252nd20/10%88%+0.88
09/01/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
30/01/20265th9/276%69%-0.07
20/02/20264th9/276%77%+0.01
06/03/20262nd9/276%92%+0.16
19/06/20267th66/10%77%+0.77
30/07/20263rd17/255%88%+0.33
19/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47