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Naana's Sparkle

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 100

Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shown improved form for current yard this year, making it 2 wins from first 3 starts when scoring at Southwell in July. Collared only close home in 23-runner contest at Glorious Goodwood (5f) and swifty back on the up when winning a 6-runner handicap at the same C&D (heavy) 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Goodwood 31/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 83 · 5f Hvy 123 · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 83 par31/073OR 833 @ Hamilton 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 88 · 5f7y Goo 136 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 88 par3 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 87 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 87 par17/103OR 873 @ Yarmouth 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 5f42y Gd 132 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 90 · 5f3y GF 135 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 90 par6/063OR 903 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 89 · 4f214y Std 130 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 23 · OR 92 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 92 par28/072OR 922 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 95 · 5f89y Goo 129 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 94 · 5f Sft 137 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 94 par29/082OR 94projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Goodwood21st3rd−1
2026-08-19York211th13th−1
2026-07-28Goodwood22nd4th−1
2026-07-05Southwell31st4th−2
2026-06-06Doncaster34th7th−2
2026-05-13Yarmouth31st4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0713/0528/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength32%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
22/08/20253rd15/890%60%-0.30
17/10/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
13/05/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
06/06/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
05/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
28/07/20262nd8/158%95%+0.38
19/08/202611th9/153%50%-0.03
29/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14