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4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 108

Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y

#8

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Built on an encouraging return at the Dante Meeting when scoring in ready fashion in a Windsor handicap later that month. Quickly back on track when taking a 5f York listed event in July and shaped better than the result having met trouble when mid-field in the Nunthorpe there last month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 29/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 100 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 100 par29/072OR 100C1 @ Deauville 10/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 104 · 4f213y GS 123 · beat its mark10/08/2025 · OR 104 par1 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 104 · 5f Goo 128 · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 104 par30/081OR 1042 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 102 · 4f214y Sta 136 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 102 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 100 · 5f Gd 135 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 100 par14/052OR 1002 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 100 · 5f21y Goo 133 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 100 par1 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 108 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 108 par30/051OR 1081 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 107 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 108 · 5f GS 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 108 par21/081OR 108projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York111th11th+0
2026-07-11York11st1st−0
2026-05-30Carlisle14th4th−0
2026-05-18Windsor21st3rd−1
2026-05-14York28th10th−1
2025-09-21Southwell27th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0721/0930/0521/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20253rd5/174%89%+0.16
10/08/20252nd5/287%90%+0.03
30/08/20258th10/147%13%-0.35
21/09/20257th13/266%54%-0.12
14/05/20268th10/147%65%+0.18
18/05/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
30/05/20264th9/488%57%-0.31
11/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
21/08/202611th25/10%41%+0.41