Shagraan
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 104
Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 17th | 17th | +0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Haydock | 1 | 11th | 11th | +0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Ascot | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newbury | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 85% | +0.19 |
| 23/05/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 9% | -0.65 |
| 16/06/2026 | 17th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |