Starlust
5yo Horse · 9-3 · OR 112
Newbury · Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) · 5f 34y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 23th | 23th | +0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/12/2024 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 24/05/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 17/06/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 84% | +0.68 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |
| 16/06/2026 | 23rd | 50/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 81% | +0.44 |