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10

Bulletin

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 61y

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since scoring at Kempton in August 2025 but he's proven reliable, making the frame on his next 8 starts and beaten only by a bright prospect back at Kempton last month. Quick turnaround perhaps to blame for a rare below-par effort at Newmarket 4 weeks ago and he's the type to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 85 · 1m4f14y Sta 131 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 85 par21/093OR 852 @ Kempton 03/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 84 · 1m2f219y Sta 117 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 84 par4 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 84 · 1m2f Goo 134 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 84 par18/044OR 843 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 86 · 1m3f211y Goo 127 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 87 · 1m3f219y Sta 132 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 87 par27/053OR 872 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 87 · 1m4f6y Sft 119 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 87 · 1m3f219y Sta 132 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 87 par2/073OR 873 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 87 · 1m3f219y Sta 141 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 87 · 1m6f Gd 133 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 87 par22/083OR 87projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket35th6th−1
2026-08-12Kempton32nd3rd−1
2026-07-02Kempton34th5th−1
2026-06-06Epsom Downs23rd3rd0
2026-05-27Kempton34th5th−1
2026-05-09Ascot32nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/099/052/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/20254th4/179%70%-0.09
03/11/20253rd10/382%82%-0.01
18/04/20263rd7/163%85%+0.21
09/05/20262nd15/261%92%+0.32
27/05/20264th5/174%75%+0.01
06/06/20263rd15/261%83%+0.23
02/07/20264th3/184%50%-0.34
12/08/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
22/08/20265th3/184%0%-0.84