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4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 92

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 61y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In fine form for current yard and followed up Catterick (1½m) success in July with victory in 5-runner handicap at Newbury (1½m, good to firm) last month. Only workmanlike when landing the odds over hurdles at Newton Abbot 12 days ago and this rates as a tougher assignment.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 84 · 1m2f Sft 130 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 84 par25/103OR 844 @ Catterick 21/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 1543 @ Newbury 17/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m69y Goo 15417/1234 @ Taunton 08/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m104y Gd 1493 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 84 · 1m2f GF 136 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 84 par29/063OR 844 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 81 · 1m4f13y GF 140 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Newbury 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 1m4f GF 138 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 85 par15/084OR 852 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 85 · 1m3f188y GS 128 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 104 · 2m167y Gd 156 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 104 par7/094OR 104projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot41st3rd−2
2026-08-21York215th15th0
2026-08-15Newbury41st3rd−2
2026-07-22Catterick41st3rd−2
2026-06-29Windsor38th9th−1
2026-01-08Taunton42nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/108/0115/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength56%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/202511th3/184%17%-0.68
21/11/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
17/12/20254th3/184%67%-0.18
08/01/20262nd13/891%86%-0.06
29/06/20268th33/10%0%0.00
22/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
15/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
21/08/202615th10/147%7%-0.41
07/09/20261st5/696%100%+0.04