IvyArcIvyArc
3

Fantasy World

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 102

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 61y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Signed off 2025 with a useful victory in listed race at Ascot. Needs to prove he retains that ability, though, having run poorly on first start back for Andrew Balding (following an ordinary spell over hurdles). Now sports tongue strap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 12/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m2f GF 13112/0555 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 1m2f GS 130 · beat its mark30/06/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Yarmouth 24/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 82 · 1m3f104y Sft 125 · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 82 par24/074OR 822 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 88 · 1m5f188y Goo 130 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 88 par2 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 88 · 1m6f1y Gd 122 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 88 par6/092OR 881 @ Ascot 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 1m6f34y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 89 par4 @ Musselburgh 15/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m7f124y Goo 14915/0241 @ Kempton 21/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 103 · 1m6f87y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 103 par22/081OR 103projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Chester17th6th+1
2026-03-13Cheltenham1+2
2026-02-21Kempton13rd1st+2
2026-02-15Musselburgh44th6th−2
2025-10-03Ascot11st0th+1
2025-09-06Haydock23rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0523/0815/0222/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20253rd11/893%75%-0.18
30/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
24/07/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
23/08/20255th11/142%64%+0.22
06/09/20253rd12/137%78%+0.41
03/10/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
15/02/20264th30/10098%70%-0.28
21/02/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
22/08/20267th5/174%14%-0.59