5
Insanity
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 97
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 61y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/07/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |
| 08/11/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 19/06/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |