11
Oneforthegutter
7yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 84
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 61y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Goodwood | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Southwell | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/09/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 08/11/2025 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |