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Pearl River

3yo Colt · 8-2 · OR 88

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 61y

#8

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally at York (10.3f) in May and despite not really looking well suited by the drop back to that trip, he produced his best effort since when runner-up in a 15-runner event at that same C&D 2 weeks ago. Should benefit from this return to further.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 77 · 1m2f50y GS 132 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 77 par8/104OR 771 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 82 · 1m2f17y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 82 par2 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 82 · 1m2f Goo 114 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 82 par16/052OR 824 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 82 · 1m2f56y Goo 134 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Salisbury 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 88 · 1m4f5y Goo 133 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 88 par30/063OR 882 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 88 · 1m2f56y Goo 114 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 89 · 1m3f44y GF 134 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 89 par31/073OR 893 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 88 · 1m6f Gd 125 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y GS 128 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 87 par6/093OR 87projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York32nd3rd−1
2026-08-22Newmarket34th5th−1
2026-07-31Goodwood35th6th−1
2026-07-11York215th15th0
2026-06-30Salisbury32nd3rd−1
2026-05-23York41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1023/0531/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength92%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
28/04/20265th9/153%20%-0.33
16/05/20268th50/10%22%+0.22
23/05/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
30/06/20262nd6/594%50%-0.44
11/07/202615th33/10%33%+0.33
31/07/20265th33/10%67%+0.67
22/08/20264th5/174%25%-0.49
06/09/20262nd11/142%93%+0.51