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Primo Lara

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 90

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 61y

#7

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back-to-back wins in July at Wolverhampton on final outing for Jack Morland and at Ascot before finishing a good fourth in a York heritage handicap. Continued his run of good form when winning an 11-runner handicap at Kempton (1½m) 14 days ago and he should hold his own after a 4 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 23/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 80 par23/104OR 804 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m1f104y Std 132 · below its mark27/04/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Lingfield 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m2f Goo 135 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 75 par18/055OR 755 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m2f50y Goo 132 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 76 · 1m1f201y Gd 136 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 76 par14/065OR 765 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 75 · 1m1f104y Std 142 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 79 · 1m3f211y GF 141 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 79 par25/074OR 792 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 86 · 1m3f188y GS 124 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 86 · 1m3f219y Sta 126 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 86 par5/093OR 86projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton31st2nd−1
2026-08-21York24th4th0
2026-07-25Ascot41st3rd−2
2026-07-06Wolverhampton51st5th−3
2026-06-14Salisbury55th9th−3
2026-06-03Nottingham52nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/103/0625/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20259th16/116%27%+0.11
27/04/20269th12/137%0%-0.37
18/05/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
03/06/20262nd25/10%89%+0.89
14/06/20265th4/179%56%-0.23
06/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
25/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
21/08/20264th10/382%80%-0.02
05/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13