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7

Real Dream

7yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 94

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 61y

#12

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has slipped in the weights this season and rather caught the eye after meeting trouble in running at Newmarket on his penultimate start. That form has worked out well but he didn't confirm it himself when beating only one home in the Ebor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 11.1 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 11/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 100 · 1m6f GF 135 · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 100 par11/072OR 1002 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 103 · 1m5f188y Goo 133 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 103 parC1 @ Meydan 23/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 103 · 1m6f11y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 103 par23/01C1OR 1032 @ Kempton 28/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 104 · 1m2f219y Sta 137 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 103 · 1m5f84y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 103 par7/051OR 1032 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 101 · 1m3f39y Goo 138 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 99 · 1m6f34y GF 137 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 99 par16/062OR 992 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 97 · 1m6f GF 132 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 21st of 22 · OR 96 · 1m5f188y Goo 124 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 96 par22/082OR 96projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York221th21th0
2026-07-10Newmarket27th7th0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot213th13th0
2026-05-30Carlisle27th7th0
2026-05-07Chester17th5th+1
2026-03-28Kempton213th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0728/0316/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20253rd11/142%83%+0.41
23/08/20255th25/10%81%+0.81
23/01/20266th16/116%29%+0.13
28/03/202613th11/142%0%-0.42
07/05/20267th125/10%0%0.00
30/05/20267th25/10%45%+0.45
16/06/202613th25/10%20%+0.20
10/07/20267th50/10%33%+0.33
22/08/202621st33/10%5%+0.05