2
Adaay Of Scarlett
2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 106
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | 1 | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 95% | +0.95 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |