1
Arapaho Gold
2yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 110
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |