8
Jolivette
2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 103
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding) · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 9th | 9th | −0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +22.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |