4
Matteo
2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 91
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength32%
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |