5
Mr Macartney
2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 95
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding) · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 1 | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 2 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 10th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +12.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |