6
Nabati
2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 104
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Yarmouth | 4 | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |