13
Almekarem
4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 85
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 05/12/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |