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6

Balzac

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 97

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#8

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Highly tried after winning a Kempton novice on his return but benefited from the return to calmer waters when second of 6 in handicap at Ascot (1¼m, good to firm, 12/1) 14 days ago, having run of race. Now up 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m Goo 12825/0944 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 1271/0441 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m2f17y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS28/0411 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 97 · 1m3f133y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 97 par9/051OR 971 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 97 · 1m4f6y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 97 par6/061OR 972 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 97 · 1m1f212y GF 129 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 97 par20/062OR 973 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 95 · 1m1f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 95 par5/093OR 95projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot32nd3rd−1
2026-06-20Royal Ascot214th14th0
2026-06-06Epsom Downs111th9th+2
2026-05-09Lingfield13rd2nd+1
2026-04-28Epsom Downs13rd2nd+1
2026-04-01Kempton41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/099/055/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20253rd22/10%67%+0.67
01/04/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
28/04/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
09/05/20263rd22/10%60%+0.60
06/06/202611th66/10%17%+0.17
20/06/202614th33/10%13%+0.13
05/09/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43