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5

Boyfriend

5yo Horse · 9-2 · OR 93

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Better than ever when winning over 1m at Sandown in May and has remained in good form to make the placings on all 3 outings since, unfortunate not to score having repeatedly been denied a clean run when third of 11 at Salisbury (1m, good to soft) 16 days ago. Leading player back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Nottingham 04/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 86 · 1m75y Gd 136 · beat its mark04/06/2025 · OR 86 par4/064OR 863 @ Newmarket 10/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 88 · 1m GF 137 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 88 par3 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 88 · 1m1f11y Goo 131 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 88 par2/083OR 883 @ Newmarket 26/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 88 · 1m1f GF 138 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 88 par2 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 24 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 120 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 87 par18/042OR 873 @ Sandown 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 1m Goo 126 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 90 · 1m1f209y Gd 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 90 par12/063OR 903 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 90 · 1m1f11y GF 136 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 92 · 1m Goo 142 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 92 par3/093OR 92projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury33rd4th−1
2026-08-01Goodwood32nd3rd−1
2026-06-12Sandown33rd4th−1
2026-05-28Sandown31st2nd−1
2026-04-18Newbury28th8th0
2025-09-26Newmarket36th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0626/0912/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
10/07/20254th9/276%70%-0.06
02/08/20255th13/266%73%+0.08
26/09/20256th15/261%58%-0.02
18/04/20268th25/10%70%+0.70
28/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
12/06/20263rd5/174%85%+0.11
01/08/20262nd13/266%93%+0.27
03/09/20263rd4/179%80%+0.01