11
Capall Rasa
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Sandown | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 8th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 04/09/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |