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10

Gonna Fly

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 93

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful form, winning 2 novices but failed to make a significant impact at Chester and Goodwood on his first 2 starts in handicap company. More like it returned to more conventional track when fourth of 11 in handicap at Sandown (1¼m, soft, 9/1) 21 days ago. Still looks on a workable mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m1y Sft 13024/1041 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0413 @ Windsor 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 90 · 1m2f GF 137 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par27/063OR 903 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 95 · 1m2f70y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 95 par10/073OR 952 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 95 · 1m1f197y Goo 130 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 95 par30/072OR 952 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 93 · 1m1f209y GS 124 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 93 par29/082OR 93projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown24th4th0
2026-07-30Goodwood29th9th0
2026-07-10Chester35th6th−1
2026-06-27Windsor31st2nd−1
2026-04-18Newbury18th6th+1
2025-10-24Newbury41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1018/0427/0610/0730/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
18/04/20268th20/10%0%0.00
27/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
10/07/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
30/07/20269th28/10%38%+0.38
29/08/20264th9/153%70%+0.17