Merveilleux Lapin
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 95
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Windsor | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2025-09-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 05/10/2025 | 12th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |