8
Mr Swivell
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 90
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 05/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 94% | +0.67 |
| 27/09/2025 | 21st | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 05/06/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.39 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 68% | +0.68 |