2
Old Harrovian
7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 98
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | Newcastle | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-01-17 | Newcastle | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-04 | Southwell | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-11-04 | Kempton | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-07-12 | Chester | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2024-06-14 | York | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2023 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/05/2023 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 06/04/2024 | 11th | 9/4 | 88% | 23% | -0.65 |
| 14/06/2024 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 12/07/2024 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 04/11/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 04/01/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 17/01/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/04/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 92% | +0.00 |