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Paddy The Squire

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 103

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had a good 2025, winning 3 times, and has improved again in defeat this season, finishing third of 16 in the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot (1¾m) before second of 12 in Old Newton Cup at Newmarket (1½m). Things didn't pan out for him in the Ebor and he's the type to bounce back now sporting blinkers.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 13/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 85 · 1m2f56y Goo 119 · beat its mark13/06/2025 · OR 85 par13/062OR 852 @ Haydock 05/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 85 · 1m3f175y Goo 119 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Thirsk 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 1m4f8y Goo 127 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 87 par8/083OR 872 @ Hamilton 22/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 96 · 1m4f15y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 96 par2 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 101 · 1m6f1y Gd 134 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 101 par6/092OR 1012 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 101 · 1m3f188y Goo 136 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 100 · 1m6f34y GF 138 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 100 par16/062OR 1002 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 101 · 1m4f GF 136 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 104 · 1m5f188y Goo 132 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 104 par22/082OR 104projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York214th14th0
2026-07-04Newmarket22nd2nd0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-05-13York26th6th0
2025-09-06Haydock25th5th0
2025-08-22Hamilton21st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0622/0816/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20253rd8/158%82%+0.24
05/07/20252nd9/276%92%+0.16
08/08/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
22/08/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
06/09/20255th7/163%71%+0.08
13/05/20266th9/153%44%-0.08
16/06/20263rd22/10%87%+0.87
04/07/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
22/08/202614th16/116%38%+0.22