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Stem

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 89

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 4-y-o who gained a first win since his debut in 9-runner Sandown handicap (1¼m, good to firm) last month. Saddle slipped next time but confirmed himself as still in good form when beaten less than a length into third in an 11-runner handicap back at Sandown 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Deauville 14/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 87 · 1m1f207y Sft 123 · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 87 par14/08C5OR 873 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 1m1f212y Sft 130 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 86 par4 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 86 · 1m Goo 136 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 86 par20/094OR 862 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 24 · OR 89 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 89 · 1m113y Goo 127 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 89 par5/062OR 893 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 139 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 87 · 1m1f209y Goo 131 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 87 par4/072OR 872 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 89 · 1m3f211y GF 132 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 89 · 1m1f209y GS 127 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 89 par29/082OR 89projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown23rd3rd0
2026-08-08Ascot210th10th0
2026-07-04Sandown21st1st0
2026-06-19Newmarket34th5th−1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs213th13th0
2026-04-18Newbury29th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0818/044/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength41%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/202512th20/10%21%+0.21
06/09/20252nd14/126%80%+0.54
20/09/20252nd3/184%93%+0.09
18/04/20269th9/153%65%+0.13
05/06/202613th6/168%29%-0.39
19/06/20264th5/174%75%+0.01
04/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
08/08/202610th9/276%0%-0.76
29/08/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25