4
Theory Of Tides
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 93
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newbury | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | York | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-09-12 | Doncaster | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2024-08-23 | Hamilton | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2024 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 27/05/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 21/06/2024 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 23% | +0.18 |
| 23/08/2024 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 12/09/2024 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |