10
Momentsofsurrender
2yo Colt · 9-4
Newbury · Pump Technology Metro Rod Partnership EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Goodwood | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 4-9 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength8%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |