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11

Montgomery Bell

2yo Gelding · 9-4

Newbury · Pump Technology Metro Rod Partnership EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#15

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★ Timeform

Commentary

Looks limited after 2 runs.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 13030/0753 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 7f16y Goo 13329/083projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Chepstow34th4th0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton56th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%

Delivery trend -19.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20266th100/10%44%+0.44
29/08/20264th33/10%25%+0.25