IvyArcIvyArc
5

Aalto

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 90

Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket for the second time (previously successful in 2024) and has continued in good heart at Ascot in 2 starts since, third in both the International Handicap in July and a valuable classified event 15 days ago. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 94 · 7f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 94 par27/092OR 942 @ Kempton 03/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 93 · 7f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 93 par3 @ Newcastle 27/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m5y Std 137 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 91 par27/113OR 912 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 28 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 87 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 87 par13/063OR 873 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 125 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 87 · 7f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 87 par11/072OR 872 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 85 · 7f GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 90 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 90 par4/093OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot33rd3rd0
2026-07-25Ascot23rd2nd+1
2026-07-11Newmarket21st0th+1
2026-06-25Newmarket32nd2nd0
2026-06-13York314th14th0
2026-05-09Ascot29th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/099/0511/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1967% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/202511th11/142%17%-0.25
03/11/20257th22/10%45%+0.45
27/11/20258th15/261%36%-0.24
09/05/20269th66/10%70%+0.70
13/06/202614th6/168%28%-0.41
25/06/20262nd2/189%88%-0.02
11/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
25/07/20263rd14/126%87%+0.60
04/09/20263rd7/491%71%-0.19