American Gulf
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 92
Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | Salisbury | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Windsor | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 13th | 10th | +3 |
| 2025-06-02 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/06/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 37% | 0.00 |
| 31/07/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |