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19

Assaranca

3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 85

Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved form when readily winning a Lingfield handicap on the turf in May. Faced a couple of stiff tasks at listed level subsequently, before bouncing back when making all in handicap over this C&D last month. Task is now to build on latest effort.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 15/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 67 · 1m75y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 67 par15/105OR 671 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 72 · 7f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 73 · 1m2f43y GS 134 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 73 par29/035OR 734 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 71 · 1m113y Gd 126 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 7f Goo 125 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 70 par9/054OR 701 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 79 · 7f3y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 79 par1 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f195y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 79 par24/061OR 793 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 83 · 7f213y GF 128 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Newbury 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 80 par14/084OR 80projClass-projected finish: 11th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Newbury41st2nd−1
2026-07-10Ascot39th9th0
2026-06-24Carlisle17th4th+2
2026-06-05Epsom Downs15th2nd+2
2026-05-09Lingfield41st2nd−1
2026-04-28Epsom Downs43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1028/0424/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
25/10/20256th25/10%29%+0.29
29/03/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
28/04/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03
09/05/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
05/06/20265th33/10%20%+0.20
24/06/20267th33/10%33%+0.33
10/07/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
14/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74