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12

Desert Cop

6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 88

Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f

#19

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#19

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Turned in best effort in over a year when getting back to winning ways at Windsor (6f) in June. Below form in 3 starts since, albeit denied a clear run when tenth of 16 at Windsor 6 weeks ago. Others still preferred.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 92 · 5f8y Goo 137 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 92 par26/043OR 923 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 90 · 6f12y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 90 · 6f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 90 par16/052OR 902 @ Windsor 25/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 89 · 6f12y GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 86 · 5f21y GF 138 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 86 par22/063OR 864 @ Windsor 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 86 · 6f12y GF 142 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f3y Goo 148 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 86 par1/074OR 862 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 20th of 23 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Windsor 10/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 89 · 6f12y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 89 par10/082OR 89projClass-projected finish: 16th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-10Windsor210th9th+1
2026-07-28Goodwood220th19th+1
2026-07-01Epsom Downs44th5th−1
2026-06-27Windsor41st2nd−1
2026-06-22Windsor37th7th0
2026-05-25Windsor25th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0425/051/0710/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 1911% of fieldRange 9-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength13%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20267th22/10%33%+0.33
11/05/20263rd22/10%75%+0.75
16/05/202614th25/10%0%0.00
25/05/20265th11/142%33%-0.09
22/06/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
27/06/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
01/07/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
28/07/202620th50/10%14%+0.14
10/08/202610th50/10%40%+0.40