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Garfield Shadow

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 95

Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f

#15

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful 3 times in 2024, including on stable debut in Group 3 in Qatar on final outing. Missed last year but has shaped as if retaining his ability this season, runner-up at Pontefract on return and bouncing back from a lesser effort when fourth of 13 at Ascot 2 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 19/05/2024 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 6f GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2024 · OR 90 par19/052OR 902 @ York 15/06/2024 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 90 · 6f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/06/2024 · OR 90 par2 @ Chester 27/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 89 · 6f17y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2024 · OR 89 par27/072OR 893 @ Chester 31/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 91 · 6f17y Gd 133 · beat its mark31/08/2024 · OR 91 parBHA92 @ Leopardstown 14/09/2024 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 92 · 7f Gd 128 · below its mark14/09/2024 · OR 92 par14/0992OR 922 @ Ascot 04/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 93 · 6f Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2024 · OR 93 par2 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 101 · 6f Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 101 par7/072OR 1012 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 20th of 27 · OR 101 · 6f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 97 · 6f Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 97 par5/092OR 97projClass-projected finish: 5th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot24th3rd+1
2026-08-01Goodwood220th19th+1
2026-07-07Pontefract22nd1st+1
2024-10-04Ascot22nd1st+1
2024-09-14LeopardstownBHA923rd10th−6
2024-08-31Chester33rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0531/087/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1950% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20244th5/174%50%-0.24
15/06/202417th9/153%0%-0.53
27/07/20241st9/276%100%+0.24
31/08/20243rd7/282%78%-0.04
14/09/20243rd10/147%88%+0.40
04/10/20242nd17/255%89%+0.34
07/07/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
01/08/202620th50/10%27%+0.27
05/09/20264th11/271%75%+0.04