14
Jonny Concrete
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 87
Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Newmarket | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1939% of fieldRange 10-20 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 19/09/2025 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 82% | -0.05 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 84% | +0.08 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |