15
Marcellinus
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 88
Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Brighton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Bath | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1956% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 90% | -0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |