9
Morte Point
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 88
Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Newmarket | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 3 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Chepstow | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 196% of fieldRange 16-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 18th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 41% | -0.17 |
| 09/05/2026 | 21st | 50/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 22/05/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 15% | -0.27 |
| 11/06/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 29/07/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |
| 08/08/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |